Larry Williams did not hide the call.
In a StockCharts TV appearance published on May 26, 2026, Williams says the next bullish wave may be starting. He walks through the Nasdaq, the Dow, bonds, seasonal patterns, cycle work, money flow, and the Commitment of Traders report. By the end, the message is blunt.
No bear market. Stocks trend higher. Buy breaks.
That is the clip in one line. It is also the line most likely to travel badly.
Williams is not telling viewers to buy every green candle. His better point is narrower: if the larger tape is still bullish, weakness is the place to look. The trade is in the break, not in the excitement after the break has already been bought.
The Three Tools
Williams starts with his map of the market.
Fundamentals tell him why a market should eventually move. Technical analysis tells him where it is now. Cycles tell him when a buying or selling window may be opening.
Most market arguments get stuck because one tool is asked to do every job. Value investors talk as if cheapness has a calendar. Chart traders talk as if the current pattern explains the whole economy. Cycle traders can sound as if time itself guarantees price.
Williams does not quite do that here. He says he does not think a trader can live on cycles alone, or value alone. He wants overlap: Nasdaq cycle, Dow wave, bond seasonality, bond money flow, commercial buying in COT data, and his standing 2026 view that market breaks should be bought.
The call can still be wrong. The point is that it is not coming from one lonely line on one chart.
The Nasdaq Wave
The Nasdaq is the center of the stock argument.
Williams says he has been focusing on it because the Dow has been "squirly" this year. His cycle work, as shown in the video, points to a bullish phase that starts to turn up around June, sees a pullback around August, and then pushes higher again.
He claims that, going back to the inception of the Nasdaq, this particular wave has seen rallies about 90% of the time.
That is his number. It is not independently visible from the video transcript, and the underlying cycle model is proprietary to his work. So it should be treated as a Williams claim, not as public arithmetic.
The trading point is clear enough without the proprietary math. Williams is not waiting for a beautiful crash to make the buy obvious. He says markets can also move sideways and then take off. A correction can be time, not price.
That is where the call gets uncomfortable. If the cycle is right, waiting for the perfect break may mean missing the move. If the cycle is wrong, buying every small pullback becomes a way to average into a market that is rolling over.
"Buy breaks" is a bias. It is not a complete plan.
Bonds Are The Cleaner Setup
The bond section may be more useful than the stock section.
Williams says bonds are at a seasonal low and that his cycle forecast also points to a turn higher. He adds two more pieces: his money-flow work shows large money moving into bonds, and the COT data shows commercial traders buying aggressively.
He does not say to chase the first rally. He says his strategy is to wait for the first short-term pullback in bonds and then look for a buy point. In the transcript, he suggests that pullback could arrive over the next few trading days.
That is cleaner than "bonds are bullish." He wants a pullback inside a bullish seasonal and cycle window. He does not want to buy just because the market already moved.
The forecast gets the click. The entry condition is where the craft sits.
The COT part should also be handled carefully. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report is weekly. It shows categories of futures positions as of Tuesday and is usually released on Friday. It is not a live order book. It does not tell a trader where tomorrow's bond tick will print.
But it can show whether a class of participants has moved heavily to one side. Williams reads commercial buying in bonds as supportive. That may be right. It may also take time. Positioning can be early, and early can still hurt.
The Inflation And Rates Backdrop
Williams also ties the call to his 2026 forecast work.
He says his forecast expected higher stock prices in 2026, advised buying market breaks, expected higher inflation, and looked for lower rates into the start of 2030. In the video he corrects one part of his earlier language: where he had apparently called for an absolute low around June 16, he now says he should have called it a cycle low, or a buying window.
That correction matters. An exact low is a hostage to one date. A buying window is looser. It gives the trader room to watch the market without pretending the calendar has to hit a price to the penny.
This is also where the article has to stay honest. Williams can be directionally bullish and still be wrong on timing. Inflation can stay sticky and bonds can still rally for a while. Rates can fall for reasons that are good for risk assets, or for reasons that are not good at all. A bond rally can signal easing pressure, or it can signal growth fear.
The video is a market call, not a complete macro model. It works better as a desk note than as a grand explanation of 2026.
What Traders Can Actually Use
The actionable part of the video is not "Larry Williams is bullish." That is too broad. The sequence is more specific:
- stocks remain in a bullish Williams framework;
- the preferred tactic is to buy weakness, not chase strength;
- bonds may be setting up after a short-term pullback;
- the setup depends on cycles, seasonality, price action, money flow, and COT positioning lining up.
That becomes tradable only if the trader adds the missing pieces. Where is the pullback valid? What turns it into a failed move? How much size belongs on the trade? What if Nasdaq keeps grinding higher and never gives the break? What if bonds pull back and do not turn?
Without those answers, the trader has borrowed Williams' confidence and kept the risk for himself.
The Real Line
The best line in the clip is not the bullish wave. It is the instruction beneath it: buy breaks. Do not be afraid of weakness if the larger pattern is still bullish.
That sentence has survived for a reason. Strong markets rarely feel easy to buy. They either run without you or pull back hard enough to make the purchase uncomfortable. By the time the comfort returns, the price is usually higher.
Williams is saying the current setup is still a bull market, not a bear-market top. He may be right. He may be early. He may be wrong.
The forecast is higher prices. The entry is weakness. The invalidation is the part each trader has to define before he borrows the call.
Disclosure: Margin of Pain publishes research and commentary about traders, markets, and risk. This article is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold any security, derivative, futures contract, currency, commodity, or asset.
Source trail
- StockCharts TV / YouTube, Larry Williams: The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting, published May 26, 2026.
- CFTC, Commitments of Traders.
- CFTC, Commitments of Traders explanatory notes.
- FRED, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity.
- Margin of Pain, Larry Williams and the Problem With a Record Year.